Wednesday, 19 December 2012

PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER - DECEMBER

Follow the agents who follow the money

Who opened or expanded branches in November/October/December

Central London – CBRE has acquired London estate agency, E.A. Shaw

UK - Countrywide has acquired 23 lettings offices in past 18 months

Ealing (London) - Benham & Reeves Residential Lettings

West Hampstead (London) - Kinleigh Folkard & Hayward has opened a lettings branch
London - Hamptons International has opened a lettings department in Hong Kong for owners of London property.

London - Chesterton Humberts has launched a home-finding service

Liguria (Italian Riviera) - Chesterton Humberts


PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER is updated monthly (except in summer). It lists which estate agents opened or expanded branches, or formed new affiliations, in the previous month.


Estate agents open or expand operations in an area when their research shows demand is rising, so this can indicate a future property hotspot.

See my Financial Times article on where and why agents expand by clicking on this link http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/28b251d0-428d-11e1-93ea-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rARj2Xfz

If you want to add any branch openings/expansions to this list please add them to the comments section or tweet me @richardgwarren or email me at
richard.warren@rocketmail.com

Wednesday, 5 December 2012

FUTURE CITIES: WHAT WILL THEY REALLY BE LIKE?


Taller, greener, smarter and home-based

Artists' impressions of tomorrow's urban utopias usually depict cities of giant towers, some bulbous or twisting, others connected by walkways in the sky and buzzed by flying cars. The reality could be more practical, liveable and equally imaginative.


Significantly, we, the people, may have a bigger say in how our cities evolve. The BMW Guggenheim Lab, a collaboration between the car-maker and art museum, is an ideas forum for urban design which is holding a rolling programme of talks in cities around the world. Discussions held at its first stop, New York, suggest future cities will be shaped increasingly at grass-roots level by ordinary citizens says Thomas Girst, BMW Group spokesman. “Small urban experiments initiated from a culture of participation, crowd sourcing, community cohesiveness... will inspire larger, city and region-wide efforts aimed at urban improvement,” says Girst.


Despite the Lab's initial findings, planning professionals dominate thinking for now, and 'Place-making' is one of their favourite buzzwords. Instead of dividing a city into distinct residential, retail, office and industrial zones, the idea is for districts to become a mix of these elements, so it is alive all hours of the day, and enables people to live close to their work places, shops and leisure facilities, saving them time and money on travel. Early examples include the City of London which, in addition to being Europe's key financial district, is now a prime residential area, because it has changed from being a place where hardly anybody lived to become home to 9,000 people, many of them residing in new, luxury apartment blocks, such as The Heron.


The future city will be high tech. Companies like Siemans, Philips and Cisco Systems promote 'smart cities' where technological innovations like wireless sensor networks will be installed by authorities to manage resources better, such as dimming and brightening street lighting depending on when it is needed most. Jeroen Beekmans, partner at Golfstromen, a creative agency based in Amsterdam, works with Phillips to explore how intelligent technologies, such as Internet accessing smart-phones, can shape cities. He believes citizens may manage public functions like street lighting in future. “Now we all have a smartphone, but in ten years we might wear innovative glasses that turn the city into an operating system,” he says.


Another technological development to watch is 3-D printing. Using blueprints stored on the Internet, 3-D printers can print out objects like chairs and door knobs using plastic or metal powder as 'ink'. Scientists are looking to bring down costs so we can have 3-D printers at home to print out smaller objects, and machines in high street premises to produce larger pieces. If realised, this technology will speed up the demise of traditional retailing which has been battered by on-line shopping, leading to fewer shops on our high streets. We may also see buildings constructed with 3-D printers. Loughborough University has developed a machine to print out wall sections with cavities for cabling. If the machine becomes commercially viable, then construction of buildings will become faster, because developers can install 3-D printed sections, rather than fabricate walls on site.


The Internet is enabling more people to work from home, so companies will need fewer offices in future, which means fewer and smaller office districts. In place of offices we have work hubs appearing in suburban and central city districts to accommodate home workers who want to work outside of the house part of the week, mainly so they can enjoy human company. Operating like gyms, these hubs have desks, phones, printers and even cafes and libraries for users who pay monthly membership charges. More people working from home means fewer people commuting, so the relentless expansion of roads and commuter railways could ease up in many cities, possibly stop and even go into reverse, assisting another trend, pedestrianisation.


On New York's Manhattan Island, a three kilometre long stretch of overhead railway has been closed and turned into The High Line Park pedestrian walkway. In central London, Braham Street, a previously busy four lane road, has become Braham Park, a quiet, green oasis. London is following the example of the Netherlands by turning some roads, like Exhibition Road in Kensington, into shared spaces that cars and pedestrians both use. It slows down traffic and is safe, but irritates drivers, because they have to negotiate pedestrians in their path, leading some of them to leave the car at home.


Reducing traffic in cities is part of a wider drive to make them Greener, so too are low carbon building projects which are appearing in greater numbers. In Helsinki, British engineers and designers, Arup, leads an international team master-planning a Dhs272million low carbon housing, office and retail complex called Low2No on behalf of Finnish development partners Sitra, SRV and VVO. Intended to be a role model for other low CO2 schemes, the 22,000 square meter project will have energy efficient buildings made from sustainable materials like wood and an off-site wind farm to offset carbon emissions.



Some new eco-districts are being named after the company that builds them, so we may expect some future urban landscapes to become branded products just like groceries. For example, Masdar City in the UAE is named after Masdar, a renewable energy subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi government-owned Mubadala Development Company. When fully complete in 2025 the city will be home to 40,000 people and a showcase for renewable energy and clean industries developed by the company's recently built Masdar Institute of Science and Technology.


London studio, Foster + Partners, is designing Masdar City to be energy efficient. Buildings are being constructed close to each other to create wind canyons and to ensure the sun only shines for one hour a day in these narrow pedestrian corridors, a passive cooling system for buildings and pedestrians that reduces the need for active cooling systems like air conditioning. This design follows the pattern of traditional Arab cities which maximised shady areas. This means future cities may provide opportunities for design ideas from the past to make a come back.


However, not all schemes come to fruition. In China, developer SIIC had plans to build Dongtan, an eco-city near Shanghai. The first phase was scheduled for completion in 2010, but it remains un-built and so does the remainder of the city which was intended to become home for 500,000 people. Arup master-planned this city, but implementation has been postponed indefinitely by the developer with no explanation given.


Unrealised dreams like Dongtan have led some architects like Austin Williams, director of the Future Cities Project, to argue that the current emphasis on sustainability and low impact architecture has resulted in poor quality design and urban planning.


Usually, we think of cities getting bigger, but some could shrink. Some already are. In the US city of Detroit, 12,000 homes have been abandoned by people escaping economic decline for better times elsewhere. Those houses that don't fall down are knocked down. Civic authorities are attempting to consolidate who and what is left behind into a smaller, manageable unit, so homes are no longer separated by acres of “urban prairie” as exists in some parts of the city now.


Of course, the Detroit authorities might want to consider taking advantage of this enforced ruralisation to adopt the Roman principle of rus in urbe, of deliberately bringing the countryside into the city to make it a greener, healthier place. This principle exists in the British city of Bath where sheep graze in parks within the city centre, and in the London suburb of Richmond which has a dairy farm open to the public. Cowboys in Detroit? It may happen.

Monday, 8 October 2012

PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER - OCTOBER

Follow the agents who follow the money

Who opened or expanded branches during September

The World – A&K International Estates was launched. This new estate agency arm of travel group, Abercrombie & Kent, will market GBP1m+ homes using its worldwide network of 50 offices and database of 250,000 HNWI clients.

Clapham (London) - John D Wood & Co

Marylebone (London) - Thamesview (purchased Harris Latner)

Mayfair (London) - Winkworth opened Chinese-speaking desk.

Cascais (Portugal) - Fine & Country


PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER is updated monthly (except in summer). It lists which estate agents opened or expanded branches, or formed new affiliations, in the previous month.


Estate agents open or expand operations in an area when their research shows demand is rising, so this can indicate a future property hotspot.

See my Financial Times article on where and why agents expand by clicking on this link http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/28b251d0-428d-11e1-93ea-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rARj2Xfz

If you want to add any branch openings/expansions to this list please add them to the comments section or tweet me @richardgwarren or email me at richard.warren@rocketmail.com

Tuesday, 18 September 2012

PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER - SEPTEMBER

 
Follow the agents who follow the money

Who opened or expanded branches during the summer

Henley-on-Thames – Sotheby's International Realty

South Kensington (French-speaking branch) - Douglas & Gordon

Central Kensington - Chesterton Humberts

Stockwell, Tooting and Mitcham (South London) - Century 21 franchise (formerly Abbey Estate Agents)

Maldives - Christies International Real Estate (affiliation with Dutch Docklands)


PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER is updated monthly (except in summer). It lists which estate agents opened or expanded branches, or formed new affiliations, in the previous month.

Estate agents open or expand operations in an area when their research shows demand is rising, so this can indicate a future property hotspot.

See my Financial Times article on where and why agents expand by clicking on this link http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/28b251d0-428d-11e1-93ea-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rARj2Xfz

If you want to add any branch openings/expansions to this list please add them to the comments section or tweet me @richardgwarren or email me at richard.warren@rocketmail.com

Friday, 17 August 2012

BIG ESTATE AGENTS OPEN ON FRENCH RIVIERA

Glamour versus austerity



Four international estate agencies opened offices, formed affiliations or acquired local estate agencies on the French Riviera between March and June this year – Savills, Knight Frank, Chesterton Humberts and Christies International Real Estate. The agents say the French Riviera's luxury housing market is benefiting from a domino effect with a growing number of increasingly wealthy international HNWIs buying a home in London and then wanting a place on the Cote d'Azur.


But with the French economy stalled, President Hollande raising taxes and the eurozone in crisis, how well timed is this move to the Med? Some estate agents and buyers agents who have been operating on the Riviera for a while say they would be busier sitting on the beach this summer, because so few buyers are around. But other agents say business is good, so it is not clear which way the market is headed in the short term.


The longer term must surely be bright. Times may be rocky now, but they were worse during World War Two, and the Riviera recovered from that, so why not this time? The Cote d'Azur is and will remain one of the most glamorous places in the world. When the eurozone crisis is finally resolved, estate agents, letting agents and buyers agents will be far too busy to even contemplate spending summer on the beach.


The leaves unanswered the big question of “how long must we wait for the good times?”. Nobody knows. It could be months, but more likely years, and it brings to mind Warren Buffett's advice to stock buyers which must hold true for the housing market - “Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.” Hopefully, it won't be that bad.

Friday, 6 July 2012

BRITAIN'S RACIST AND RIP-OFF LANDLORDS


The Rachman era returns

Forget the market-rigging bankers, the phone-hacking journalists and the bribe-taking police. What about the rip-off landlords who bring shame on Britain? Yesterday, two shocking bits of news came to light.


First, the London borough of Brent announced its crackdown on “Beds in Sheds”. In the past three years the council has issued 84 planning enforcement notices against home-owners who rented out their garden sheds to desperate tenants, so now it wants to put a stop to this exploitation once and for all.


Second, it turns out many landlords are racists – a BBC investigation of London and Birmingham landlords has found some choose tenants on the basis of race. For example, their adverts say tenants “Must be Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Indian” or “Filipino only” or “Sri Lankan professional couples”. The BBC and Letting Agent Today ask whether these landlords are breaking the law? Well, if they aren't, then they darn well ought to be. Weren't the days of “No dogs, no blacks, no Irish” supposed to be long gone?


Britain's landlords are developing a shocking reputation. Increasingly the worst among them make headlines for the wrong reasons – intimidating tenants, operating dangerous boilers in rental properties, evicting tenants to replace them with higher paying Olympics visitors are some examples of their outrageous behaviour. No wonder the London Borough of Newham and the Welsh government want landlords licensed. That way the Rachmanesque among them can be weeded out.


Yes, many landlords are decent human beings who provide decent accommodation at a decent price. But the private lettings market is becoming so tainted by criminality, incompetence and greed, that it is time for decent landlords to stand up and take action against their corrupt peers. The National Landlords Association's Code of Practice whilst laudable is not enough. The body should support landlord licensing or, at least, a landlords register to professionalise the sector fully. Scotland has a landlords register and limited licensing system. Time to extend that across the rest of the United Kingdom.

Wednesday, 20 June 2012

POLLUTION WILL AFFECT HOUSING MARKETS

What price clean air?

In Rio the politicians are discussing how to save the planet. In Hong Kong a friend has posted a facebook status update which shows in graphic detail how our survival on this planet is threatened. It gives a link to a University of Hong Kong website http://hedleyindex.sph.hku.hk/home.php which shows smog in Hong Kong today (June 20th) at levels the World Health Organisation considers “Very Dangerous” owing to northerly winds blowing China's industrial air pollutants southward. Four Hong Kong people will die today because of this pollution the university's School of Public Health forecasts. Air pollution in Hong Kong has exceeded safe levels for 139 out of 171 days so far this year.

What has all this got to do with property you may ask? Well, one of the reasons why I moved away from Hong Kong in the 1990s was because of its worsening air pollution. My departure has barely made a nano-dent in the territory's demography, because vast numbers of Chinse have moved into Hong Kong since I left, pushing up its population by about a million, so this means pollution has not stopped Hong Kong from continuing to expand and this has provided knock-on benefits for its economy and the value of its clearly much sought-after homes. However, many more individuals may leave Hong Kong in future and this could have an impact on its housing market.

As Hong Kong University's research shows, the cost of treating pollution-related diseases and the loss of productivity has drained HKD18 billion (GBP1.5 billion) from the Hong Kong economy so far this year. And the problem is worsening. As the costs to people's health and businesses mount up, so a tipping point will be reached where more non-Chinese leave Hong Kong for a place where they can breathe, and reduced numbers will want to move there. That will have a negative affect on the territory's economy and that, plus the direct affects of reduced housing demand, will have a negative affect on its property market, especially at the upper end which overseas corporates favour for accommodating expatriate staff.

Admittedly, we could be talking decades, certainly years, but if current trends continue then this will surely happen eventually. Another caveat, Chinese immigration, which forms the vast bulk of people moving into Hong Kong, is unlikely to be affected, because they come from a place that is no less polluted. And yes, Chinesification could fill the gap left by departing expatriates, but Hong Kong is a trading city that depends on its oversess links. What's more, many of those Chinese and Hong Kong residents who can afford to leave will do so.

What may happen in Hong Kong could be replicated in other locations across the world, wherever air pollution, rising water levels, extreme weather and other environmental disasters become overwhelming. And while those locations suffer population loss and economic decline, the safe havens where people move to will see increased pressure on housing stock. If not enough homes are built to keep up with the demand from incomers in these locations, then sales prices and rents will rise. Of course, if the world's environmental problems are sorted out then none of this may happen.....

Friday, 15 June 2012

PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER - JUNE

Follow the agents who follow the money

Who opened or expanded branches in May

St Johns Wood (London) – Chesterton Humberts

Central London - Christies Private Property (new buyers agency)

Henley and Cobham - Sotheby's International Realty

Bristol - Hamptons International

Hong Kong - Landscope Christies International Real Estate

Asia - Sotheby's International Realty (expands management team)

Malta - Chesterton Humberts


PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER is updated monthly. It lists which estate agents opened or expanded branches, or formed new affiliations, in the previous month.
Estate agents open or expand operations in an area when their research shows demand is rising, so this can indicate a future property hotspot.

See my Financial Times article on where and why agents expand by clicking on this link http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/28b251d0-428d-11e1-93ea-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rARj2Xfz

If you want to add any branch openings/expansions to this list please add them to the comments section or tweet me @richardgwarren or email me at richard.warren@rocketmail.com

Thursday, 7 June 2012

IMPACT OF POLITICS ON PROPERTY MARKETS


...it grows bigger every day...

Not since the fall of the Berlin Wall have politicians had such a big impact on property markets.
The end of state Socialism in eastern Europe in the late 1980s and early 90s allowed for the return of private property ownership there and in China, while in Britain and the United States this transformation coincided with conservative politicians striving to create "property owning democracies" in which tenants could become home-owners.

Today, politicians who reform housing markets do so more through pragmatism than idealism. By raising property taxes the Chinese government has ruthlessly engineered a downturn in its property market to squeeze out inefficient property companies. The Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore authorities have introduced taxes and buyer restrictions to cool overheated housing markets too.

In Europe, the Portuguese government will administer the economic equivalent of CPR to its recession-blighted construction sector this month (June) by allowing landlords to raise rents for the first time in 30 years, so they can fund building improvements. Politicians had been putting off this reform for 25 years, because they didn't want to be confronted by angry tenants.

Politicians are impacting on property markets in unintended ways too, sometimes far from home. Property prices in prime central London are higher now than they were during the previous market peak in 2007, because of a house price boom fuelled by an influx of Greeks escaping political meltdown in Athens, French avoiding newly elected President Hollande's planned tax rises, Russians fleeing arbitrary rule under re-elected President Putin, Chinese escaping corruption and autocracy in Beijing and Arabs leaving behind political turmoil in the Middle East.

This politically-driven flow of wealth across the world can have political repercussions in the safe havens where it is directed - in Switzerland, citizens have voted to limit foreign home ownership to 20% in tourist areas, because they are fed up with first-time buyers being priced out of the housing market by wealthy incomers.

The grand projects of politicians may even touch on London's safe-have reputation in two years' time. At the behest of the Scottish National Party, Scotland will have a referendum in 2014 on whether to become independent - although according to opinion polls only 40% of the country is currently in favour of full devolution. If the Scots do vote "yes", then there will be wrangles between Scotland and the remainder of the United Kingdom over who owns which North Sea oil fields and is responsible for the debts of Edinburgh registered banks like Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland. The arguments will create uncertainty, which housing markets don't like. Resolution of the arguments could see one or both newly separated countries less well-off or better-off than before, which will have a knock-on effect on their housing markets.

An understanding of economics has long been recognised as useful when analysing the world of property - all those GDP numbers, interest rate stats, construction data and other facts and figures have a bearing on which way a housing market may move. Now, with politicians having an increasingly big impact on property markets, intentional or otherwise, it pays to have an understanding of politics too.

I wrote this blog piece for property consultancy, Knight Frank's Global Briefing, published today.

http://globalbriefing.knightfrank.com/post/2012/06/07/The-growing-influence-of-politics-on-global-property-markets.aspx

Tuesday, 15 May 2012

GREECE: IMPACT OF POLITICAL CRISIS ON ITS PROPERTY MARKET


The German and Italian experiences give clues

A company with a vested interest in boosting holiday home sales claims property prices in Greece will become 50 per cent cheaper for those buying in pounds, dollars and other currencies if the country leaves the eurozone. Those people with an eye for a Greek island hideaway may say "lovely jubbly". But wait, life is not that simple, especially when it comes to the eurozone crisis.

Yes, Greek property may become considerably cheaper if the country exits the euro and a greatly devalued drachma is re-adopted, but that could be the next link in a chain of events that sees it become next to worthless.

In political science there is a theory called Polarised Pluralism. It is not a theory you would want applied to your country. Unfortunately, Greece is becoming a text book example of it. It goes like this - a political system becomes dysfunctional when voters leave the centre ground to support parties at the extreme left and right - there will be little room for compromise, only lots of argument. Such a scenario is destabilising for the economy, financial markets and property market. Following Greece's elections in May, only 40 per cent of voters supported Socialists, liberals and conservatives who occupy that middle ground and accept austerity measures as the price to pay for Greece remaining in the euro. The other 60 per cent mostly supported a collection of extremist left wing and right wing parties, including neo-Nazi Golden Dawn, who reject austerity measures.

Following the failure of talks over the past nine days to form a governing coalition another election will be held in June. Opinion polls suggest more Greeks will go to polar extremes at that election, with far left Syriza, already the second biggest party, topping the poll. What will happen then?

To answer that question, let's look at the two great historical examples of Polarised Pluralism: the Weimar Republic and post-war Italy. The Weimar Republic collapsed when the National Socialist German Workers Party was voted into power in 1933 and created a dictatorship under its leader Adolf Hitler. The rest, as they say, is history. Like Weimar, Greece is experiencing economic catastrophe, a full-blown depression – its economy has contracted by 20 per cent since 2008 and half of its young people are jobless. Weimar had hyper-inflation and mass unemployment. Germans papered their walls with banknotes, they were that worthless. In both cases, democrats could not navigate turbulent economic waters, and were unable to stop extremists entering the political process and dividing the nation.

Syriza is not looking to form a dictatorship, but if it is not willing to accept the terms of the EU and IMF bailout, then Greece will most likely be booted out of the eurozone and bailout funding will cease. This means the government will run out of money to pay public sector employees and Greeks with mortgages and other debts in euros will find them much harder to service in devalued drachmas. These and other economic strains caused by Greece's exit from the euro will lead to greater political instability. An outgoing Greek minister has warned of civil war. Another possibility is the return to military dictatorship - the military ran Greece until 1974. That's the worst case scenario. The Italian experience offers some hope.

Italy had elections almost every year for decades, invariably resulting in shaky coalition governments, sometimes consisting of five different parties or more. Following a series of corruption scandals involving leading established parties, two new blocs of left and right were formed in 2007, and this has created stability, though of a highly idiosyncratic, Italian kind – for example, the right-wing bloc, The People of Freedom, led by Silvio Berlusconi, consists of neo-fascists, Christian democrats, liberals and conservatives. Until 2011 it governed in alliance with Lombard separatists and, some say, the mafia. A UK equivalent would be an alliance of the BNP, SNP, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, East End gangsters and Church of England. Berlusconi's failure to manage anything seriously except for his hair dye meant Italy went into deep recession and is now run by a government of technocrats. Nevertheless, it is stable.

Modern day Italy and Greece also benefit from something the Weimar Republic did not have: friends. The EU, IMF and European Central Bank, the troika, is attempting to prop up both countries. Greeks say the troika's medicine is killing the patient. However, not even Syriza wants to leave the eurozone, and with anti-austerity politicians sweeping to power in France and parts of Germany, it may be possible for a compromise to be made, to have the austerity pill  sweetened for Greeks by adding debt-free EU structural funds and European Investment Bank support to the bailout package. That's the best case scenario.

Unfortunately, even the best case scenario is unlikely to solve Greece's problems. Only a complete write-off of its debts, including bailout fund repayments, coupled with the structural reforms needed to make it competitive in the world would make it a good place for investment. There is too much opposition from Germany, the banks and others to having Greek debts written-off. While that remains the case, investment in Greece would be an investment in chaos, incompetence and much worse. In other words, avoid, avoid, avoid.

Tuesday, 8 May 2012

FRENCH ELECTION: IMPACT ON PARIS HOUSING MARKET


Not much. Arab Spring and eurozone crisis more important


Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Socialist victory in France's presidential election last weekend will make little difference to the Parisian luxury housing market. This is reflected in the reaction of markets to that victory – as expected when a Socialist wins an election, financial markets fell the very next morning. But, within hours they rose again as brokers and investors accepted his policies would be little different to those promoted by the defeated presidential incumbent, the conservative, Nicolas Sarkosy. Although much has been made that president elect, Francois Hollande, wants to levy 75 per cent income tax on those earning euro1 million or more, the reality is that even if Sarkosy had won taxes would have been raised.

Nevertheless, the threat of higher taxes has already driven some wealthy French to buy homes in London where taxation is lower. Many of the 3000 French citizens who will be affected by the 75 per cent tax rate may leave. However, their departure will have less affect on the Paris luxury housing market than it might have done in the past, because domestic demand is less important than it used to be. According to Christies International Real Estate, two-thirds of luxury home buyers in Paris come from overseas.

What's more, whether French and overseas buyers continue to buy homes in Paris will have less to do with Socialist tax policy than powerful forces at work on the international stage. Principally these are the spiralling eurozone crisis and the political turmoil beyond Europe. These two currents, one pushing property prices up and the other, down, have been swirling round the city's housing market since early 2011.

First, fears that Greece will default on its debts and that this will spread like a highly infectious disease across the rest of the eurozone, with Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and possibly Belgium defaulting too, have caused many people to think twice before buying a home in Paris, because French banks, who have lent heavily to these countries, could go bust and will need rescuing at huge cost to the French taxpayer (and those elsewhere). This has acted as a depressant on Paris property values.

Second, countering the eurozone debacle, has been a huge inflow of money from outside of France into the Paris property market, most of it coming from trouble spots. Overseas buyers include wealthy Middle Eastern individuals looking to escape violent excesses of the Arab Spring, rich Russians wanting to avoid excessive taxes and state bullying under President Putin, and Chinese wanting to leave behind corruption and autocratic government in Beijing. These international buyers have done much to drive up demand for large lateral apartments and trophy houses in the 6th, 7th, 8th and 16th arrondissments over the past 18 months.

Wealthy foreigners could be hit by higher taxes like the French. This may deter some of them from buying in Paris, but others will continue to do so, viewing higher taxes as a small price to pay for having their money protected in a safe haven. Many of these buyers fear they could lose all or most of their assets located in their home countries. In any case, higher taxes have been on the cards for some time, so overseas buyers have started to factor this into their calculations.

Also, although London and Monaco have lower taxes than Paris, the dirham, rouble and yuan stretch further in the French capital's housing market – prices are 50 per cent lower in the French capital than in its British rival. This is important to anyone wanting a spacious home, such as large Middle Eastern families. The highest prices in Paris touch euro3500 per square foot, compared to euro6500 per sq ft in London.

One other factor that will support prices within the iconic, nineteenth century city centre built by Baron Georges-Eugene Haussmann are strict planning controls – these allow few new developments to be built. In the long term, having the supply of property largely restricted to what is already there will help underpin values no matter what misfortune befalls the eurozone, what taxes are increased and what events take place elsewhere in the world.

Thursday, 3 May 2012

PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER - MAY

Follow the agents who follow the money


Who opened or expanded branches in April

Cote d'Azur (multiple locations) – Knight Frank (PS: Christies International Real Estate extended its affiliate network there in March)


St Jean Cap Ferrat (Cote d'Azur) - Michael Zingraf


Villefranche sur mer (Cote d' Azur) - Nice Properties

Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Hamptons and Palm Beach, Florida – Hamptons International (marketing agreement with New York-based Corcoran)


Wandsworth and Battersea (London) - Hamptons International


Earls Court (London) – Marsh & Parsons



PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER is updated monthly. It lists which estate agents opened or expanded branches, or formed new affiliations, in the previous month.

Estate agents open or expand operations in an area when their research shows demand is rising, so this can indicate a future property hotspot.

See my Financial Times article on where and why agents expand by clicking on this link http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/28b251d0-428d-11e1-93ea-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rARj2Xfz

If you want to add any branch openings/expansions to this list please add them to the comments section or tweet me @richardgwarren or email me at richard.warren@rocketmail.com

Thanks to buyers agent, Rebecca Russell, for some of the Cote d'Azur information. Her website: http://www.frenchentree.com/nice-property-finder/

Thursday, 26 April 2012

HOW TO END LONDON'S HOUSING CRISIS

Make somewhere else the capital


First, some simple maths to show how current thinking is failing to solve London's housing shortage. There are 350,000 people on social housing waiting lists in London. London Mayoral candidates promise to build hundreds-of-thousands of new homes, but experience shows us they are unlikely to do this and certainly not fast enough – over the past eight years, in Ken Livingstone's and Boris Johnson's respective tenures at City Hall, barely 110,000 affordable homes were built. At that sluggish rate of construction it would take 25 years to house those on today's waiting lists, and that does not take into account anyone else joining those lists over that period.

Now here's a statistic that represents part of the solution. There are 122,000 civil servants working in London, 27 per cent of the national total. If we move most or all of them out of the city, then their homes and offices become available for occupation to the rest of us. This is not as mad as it sounds. The BBC is moving most of its activities to Manchester, and many government agencies and departments have moved out in the past, such as Companies House to Cardiff and tax offices to Bradford.

Moving the remainder of government out of London, including MPs and peers, will provide much needed space for the city's burgeoning population and hard-pressed private sector, both of which are being priced-out by spiralling rents, sales prices and occupancy costs. Whitehall could become a new business district, or, if the buildings are not suitable for modern office use, transformed into a highly desirable residential area. This makes more sense than moving the city's vulnerable to social housing estates in Stoke-on-Trent which is what Newham council wants to do.

An added benefit – it would give an economic boost to whichever city became the new capital of the United Kingdom. All those politicians, lobbyists and civil servants spending money in shops and restaurants – what city wouldn't want that? Moving the capital out of London to a new geographical location could have political benefits too. I would suggest Liverpool – it is in the middle of the island of Britain, closer to Scotland, around the corner from Wales, across the water from Northern Ireland and immediately in touch with struggling industrial towns in the English North and Midlands.

During this Age of Austerity it makes financial sense for government to move north. It can sell or lease-out government-owned property for high prices in expensive London, while buying and leasing its new premises beyond the city for a fraction of that cost. Civil servants will be amazed by how much further their salaries will stretch outside London, even with London-weighting taken off – another saving to the taxpayer.

As Germany, China and the United States have shown a country's political and commercial centres do not need to be in the same city.

As analysis consistently shows, such as The Wealth Report by Citi and Knight Frank, London is the world's top city, but it needs room to expand, to provide more homes and work places. Redeveloping the Docklands into a new financial services sector, with space for new, affordable and suitable offices, has helped London beat off commercial competition from Frankfurt and New York since the late 1980s, but now it needs to adapt again. Yes, building more homes and filling empty properties will partly solve London's housing problems. But more must be done. If London is to remain capital of the world, then it may need to stop being capital of the United Kingdom. As the increasingly cosmopolitan make-up of London's populations shows, it has outgrown that role.

Wednesday, 11 April 2012

BUILD MORE TSUNAMI-SAFER HOMES

....they save lives

Today's Tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean is a reminder that we need more flood resistant homes. The Japanese Tsunami in 2011 and the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 that swept across the Indian Ocean from Indonesia to Africa destroyed tens of thousands of homes and killed thousands of people. That most of the world's population lives on or near coastlines makes the problem more acute.

Fortunately, architects and engineers are designing homes that can resist powerful tsunami waves. The Prajnopaya Foundation charity is building 1000 tsunami-safe(r) houses in Sri Lanka to replace homes destroyed by the tsunami in 2004. Designed by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and architects at Harvard Design School, they are intended to survive a ten meter-high tsunami like that which hit Japan last year.

Fixed to firm foundations, the tsunami-safe(r) house stands on stilts and its doors and windows are arranged in a line, so water can run straight through, under and over the building. The doors and windows get blown away, but the house remains. True, it would need to be redecorated and re-furnished after being hit by a wave, but that is easier than complete reconstruction. Moreover, survivors can continue to have a roof over their heads in the aftermath of a tsunami when flood waters have subsided.

In addition to protecting against tsunami we need to design homes to cope with storm floods and rising sea levels. Architects are coming up with many designs to protect against these dangers, including several already mentioned in this blog – see BUILD MORE FLOATING HOMES (14th March 2012). Others include Flood House, a two storey land-based home designed by British architect, Pippa Nissen.

Flood House allows water to enter the ground floor while residents can continue to live on the upper floor. The kitchen, bathroom, living room and spare bedding would be on the upper floor where self-contained utilities, including electricity generator and water storage, would continue to function. The ground floor's one meter-high concrete dado wall makes it easier to clean after a flood. Flood waters would have to rise beyond two meters before the upper floor is inundated.

So, even if floods do become a growing problem across the world, an increasing number of flood and tsunami-resilient homes are being designed that would allow people to enjoy living by water, but without actually ending up in it. All that's needed is for planners, politicians and developers to help make these designs a reality. Many lives will be saved by doing this.

Thursday, 5 April 2012

PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER - APRIL

Follow the agents who follow the money....


Who opened branches in March
Cote d'Azur - Christies International Real Estate
Marrakech - Christies International Real Estate
Dublin - Owen Reilly
Teddington (London) - Hamptons International
London Bridge (London) - Foxtons
Crouch End (London) – Foxtons

The PROPERTY HOTSPOTTER, previously known as the Housing Hotspots Tracker, is updated monthly. It lists which estate agents opened or expanded branches, or formed new affiliations, in the previous month.

Estate agents open or expand operations in an area when their research shows demand and prices are rising, so this can indicate a future property hotspot.

See my Financial Times article on where and why agents expand branches by clicking on this link http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/28b251d0-428d-11e1-93ea-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rARj2Xfz

If you want to add any branch openings/expansions to this list please add them to the comments section below or tweet me @richardgwarren or email me at richard.warren@rocketmail.com

Thursday, 29 March 2012

THE WEALTH REPORT - IMPLICATIONS

How safe are safe havens?

The rich are getting richer and the poor poorer, and the rich are retreating to the citadels leaving the wasteland to the poor - this could be a particularly dark interpretation of the findings revealed in The Wealth Report published by banker, Citi, and property consultancy, Knight Frank, yesterday, but in my opinion, summarises where the world is headed.


There are more centa-millionaires, HNWIs with more USD100 million or more in assets, living in Asia than in the West now, and the world's centre of economic gravity has shifted from the mid-Atlantic to somewhere over Turkey and Russia, and will be firmly in India and China by 2050, the report tells us. But it also reminds us that these Asian centa-millionaires, along with HNWIs from across the developing world are using much of their money to buy homes in London, New York and Paris, because they feel safer there - these cities are politically stable and enjoy the rule of law.


Economic growth in the developing world is not solving all of its problems, rather it is masking many of them, like poor governance and corruption, and worsening others, notably environmental degradation. The rich know that. That is why 60 per cent of Chinese millionaires (calculated in British Pounds) are either leaving China or considering doing so. Who feels safe living in a country where you can be arrested, tried and executed within three days?


As The Wealth Report shows, South American HNWIs are heading to Miami, the Chinese to Hong Kong and everyone to London. That's great news for estate agents and vendors in these and other recipient locations, including Monaco, Cote d'Azur, the French and Swiss Alps, Sydney and Auckland. The trouble is that with so many HNWIs arriving the natives are getting restless. Britain has increased stamp duty to 7 per cent for multi-million pound homes, which are mostly bought by foreigners, and the Swiss have voted in a referendum to limit the number of holiday homes in tourist areas to 20 per cent of housing stock, because locals are fed up with being priced-out of the housing market – great news by the way for owners of existing Swiss holiday homes, because their assets have suddenly attained rarity value.


These tax increases and construction caps are mild however, and in themselves little to worry about, except that they could be the start of something more ominous – growing resentment of wealthy foreigners. As any politics lecturer will tell us, when you have one line of division (nationality) compounded by another, (contrasts in wealth), then the potential for conflict becomes exponentially worse. The Occupy Movement has focused on banks, but it would not take a great leap of the imagination to see its supporters outside under-used and over-furnished, luxury flats at One Hyde Park. Squatting has been on the rise across the world for several years, another sign that we need to close the gap between rich and poor. Inward investment should always be welcomed, but it must benefit the locals. That is the only way to ensure real, lasting security for wealthy outsiders moving into “safe havens”.

Wednesday, 21 March 2012

HOW TAXES AFFECT HOUSING MARKETS

Small is beautiful if it's a tax rise

Tax cuts and tax rises - they are good indicators of where a property market is at, but can they influence where it is headed? Invariably, finance ministers, like Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, raise property taxes (like he has today) when housing markets are strong and cut them when weak.

The British property market maybe weak overall, but its luxury end, the sector for GBP2 million+ homes, on which Chancellor George Osborne will levy stamp duty at 7 per cent from today, has reached record highs in London. This sector will also be affected by his decision to close tax loopholes that allow wealthy foreigners to pay stamp duty at 0.5 per cent when purchasing property via a tax haven.

The Italian government has raised property taxes too. Its retrospective 0.76 per cent annual levy on the market value of homes owned by Italians overseas is effectively a tax on the London housing market, because that is where many Italians buy second homes. Neither the Italian nor the British tax measures are likely to impact significantly on the prime central London housing market. Most overseas buyers will continue to buy London property, because they are doing so for political or extreme wealth preservation reasons - wealthy Middle East businessmen concerned about the Arab Spring, wealthy Greeks and Italians wanting to have assets outside of the crisis-ridden eurozone, Africans looking for a safe haven for their money, Chinese looking to escape autocracy and corruption back home, and Russians looking to avoid punitive taxes which they expect newly elected President Putin to introduce.

If Putin does over-tax his country's rich – and he must be tempted because Moscow's property market is surging, then more of them will move capital abroad – bad news for Moscow vendors and estate agents, but good news for those in London, Paris and other locations favoured by wealthy Russians.

Here's another example of tax increases in one country bolstering property markets in another – newly introduced higher capital gains taxes in France has led to an increase in enquiries for low-taxed Monaco homes. And another example - Chinese money is finding its way overseas via Chinese businesses - the only legitimate way for Chinese to export capital abroad, following property tax rises in China and subsequent price falls – values are forecast to collapse 30 per cent in 2012, more than Beijing would like, so now it is looking to cut taxes again to stabilise the market. Hopefully, it won't be too late, because tax cuts don't always work when other factors like sentiment are overwhelmingly negative - just look at Spain.

Spain's Socialist government cut VAT on new homes from 8 per cent to 4 per cent for six months in 2011, and some developers subsidised the remaining 4 per cent, so that effectively it became 0 per cent for buyers. Madrid's new conservative government has extended the VAT holiday until the end of 2012. The affect on the housing market? Negligible, though some developers around Marbella, where the market is starting revive, say every little helps. In Cyprus, where the market has been troubled since 2007, VAT cuts made in October 2011 have had no tangible affect, though it is still early days of course. These two countries' economic problems are just too great for these tax cuts to make much impact.

So, can tax cuts and rises affect a housing market? Only if they are so large they become more significant than other issues. Increasing stamp duty from 5 per cent to 7 per cent for multi-million pound homes in Britain is not a large tax increase. Still not convinced? The increase in stamp duty from 4 per cent to 5 per cent for GBP1million+ homes, implemented 11 months ago, is now completely forgotten.

Wednesday, 14 March 2012

BUILD MORE FLOATING HOMES

....they are getting prettier

We love living by water, but not on it. If we can overcome our primeval desire to live on dry land, then we could partly solve two big problems – the housing shortage in cities and the affects of flooding.

Most cities are built by bays or rivers – these are a rich, mostly untapped source of residential “land”, ample space for floating homes. Unfortunately, few people are attracted to the idea of living like“sea gypsies”. The image of a floating home is bad – depending on what part of the world you come from, it might be a narrow boat too small to pirouette in, a trailer-trash home on a metal tray, a converted fishing boat or another piece of cramped, cough-and-cold-inducing residential flotsam or jetsam.


But times are changing– architects are designing warm, dry, spacious and exciting homes that float. Architects in the Netherlands are leading the way. Studios, like Aquatecture, have designed attractive floating homes, pictured here, for Dutch canal dwellers. And outside the country's ring of dikes, 46 floating homes were created at Maasbommel by the DuraVermeer Group in 2005 – securely attached to moorings they go up and down with rising and receding flood waters – they survived a nationwide flood in 2011.


British studio, Baca Architects, has designed Britain's first amphibious home next to the river Thames, which will be built by the end of 2012, and the country's first floating community at a Glasgow marina, scheduled for completion in 2020.


Over the coming decades, floods will become more frequent, because of rising sea levels and fiercer storms resulting from climate change. Meanwhile, housing will become increasingly sought-after and expensive in cities, because the production of new homes can't keep up with the reproduction of humans, and there is a finite amount of land available. Yes, we can keep building upwards, build on green fields or reclaim more land from the sea, but creating floating homes is quicker, less expensive and less environmentally damaging. They can also be fun to live in.

Thursday, 8 March 2012

HOUSING HOTSPOTS TRACKER

Follow the agents who follow the money

A few weeks ago I wrote a piece for the Financial Times about how the world's top end estate agencies are expanding their international networks to service the growing demand for luxury homes from HNWIs. These agencies spend a lot of time and money tracking capital flows around the world - Knight Frank has 20 researchers in London doing it assisted by overseas staff. The agents follow the money that fuels the markets. This got me thinking - wouldn't it be a good idea to start a regular Housing Hotspots Tracker that shows which agents are opening or expanding branches and where.

So, here it is - if you are thinking of buying a home and want to know where the agents believe the market is hotting up, then check out the Housing Hotspots Tracker. The Tracker will be updated monthly.



HOUSING HOTSPOTS TRACKER

Estate agency branch openings since January 2012 -

Savills - Gibraltar

Strutt & Parker - Westbourne Grove (London)

Haus Properties - Fulham (London) Expanding. Opened in November 2011.
Winkworth - Canterbury (Kent), Cheam (London), Worcester Park (London) and Grantham (Lincolnshire).

Sotheby's International Realty - Canford Cliffs (Dorset), Chelsea (London), Stratford upon Avon (Warwickshire)



If you know of any agency openings/expansions that could be added to this list, then please tweet me @richardgwarren or add them to the comments section below.

Thanks to Loubie Vaughan, Emma Ward-Hunt and James Trimble for being helpful eyes and ears.

If you want to read my piece on expanding estate agencies in the FT then copy and paste this link to the address bar, and click - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/28b251d0-428d-11e1-93ea 00144feab49a.html#axzz1oRm1k1sC

Wednesday, 29 February 2012

ADZUNA HOMEBUYERS' FACEBOOK MAP

Get stalking....

Now here's something a bit bonkers. Adzuna, a social search engine for British property listings, was launched yesterday by the founders of Gumtree and Zoopla. It features a Friends Map which shows the places where your Facebook friends have "checked in" - this means that if you are thinking of buying or renting a home in the surrounding area, you could ask them questions about it, because obviously they have local knowledge, right? That's the theory.

The reality is much more hit and miss - I tried the map - yes, it did show my friends visiting Zizzi or whatever in the area where they live, but mostly it showed them visiting bars, nightclubs and restaurants in the West End (I never knew some of them led such glamorous lives) or the Westfield shopping centre or, better still, Luton Airport. This makes the map an invaluable snooping tool. However, just because my friends or I go to the Odeon, Leicester Square, occasionally does not make us an expert on what it is like to live there. We just know that we hate the crowds, tourist trap "restaurants" and general tat. Thinking about it, as I write this, I wonder if I am wrong - maybe we could offer useful advice - for anyone thinking of living around Leicester Square - don't do it, it is truly horrible. Yes, get this Adzuna app - it is indepensible, even if only to help you stalk friends as they go about their daily lives - fantastic! If one of them can help you select a good area to live-in as well, doubly fantastic!

http://property.adzuna.co.uk/

Monday, 27 February 2012

WILL CHINA BUY IRELAND?

Last week, China's vice president visited Ireland to discuss how it could become Beijing's "springboard" into Europe. Is fact following fiction? Last April Fool's Day I wrote something suitably stupid, but now it seems less so.....you decide......here it is again below.....



CHINA BUYS NORTHERN IRELAND

Following several months of secret negotiations, China has bought a 100 year lease on Northern Ireland from the British government. The GBP70 billion deal wipes out Britain's national debt and gives China trading and political benefits, including membership of the European Union.

The transfer of power is expected to take place on May 1st, 2011.

The Republic of Ireland has guaranteed not to challenge China's annexation of Northern Ireland in exchange for China agreeing to pay off the Irish national debt. All Ireland's nationalised and part nationalised banks will be transferred to the Bank of China as part of the deal. This will enable the Chinese to develop banking operations in Europe.

Sources close to Beijing say the Chinese will develop Northern Ireland into a low tax manufacturing, logistics and trading centre.

The Northern Ireland assembly will go into emergency session today to discuss the plans. In an unusual show of unity all of Northern Ireland's parties are said to be against the deal.

A spokesman for the British government said "this historic agreement will ensure Britain enjoys a bright economic future. There will be benefits for the people of Northern Ireland and for all of the people of the British Isles from having China invest its national surplus on our shores. It will secure jobs, bring peace and create economic growth for years to come."

A spokesman for Northern Ireland's biggest politcal party, the Democratic Unionists, described the deal as "utter foolishness".

(first published on April 1, 2011)

Tuesday, 21 February 2012

THE WORLD'S EMPTY HOMES

.....and how to fill them

The world is being taken over by ghosts. The other day a London estate agent spoke about “ghost areas” in Knightsbridge which were empty much of the time, because most property owners were foreigners who only spend a few weeks of the year in the British capital. China has “ghost districts”, entire neighbourhoods of brand new empty apartment blocks bought up by investors who refuse to let them out, because a lived-in home has less value than a “virgin” property.


These London and Chinese examples of ghost area are caused by people with wealth buying additional homes, sometimes three, four or more. There is another type of ghost area in the world caused by an opposite, but equally powerful force in housing markets – loss of wealth. An example of this can be found in Ireland, where “ghost estates”, completed or half-completed housing developments from the noughties housing boom, ring the capital, Dublin. These lie empty, because an insufficient number of people in Ireland can afford to buy one home, let alone two, three or more. There are examples of this in California, home of the original “ghost towns” that were once the boom-towns of nineteenth century westward expansion, and in Spain where one million homes lie empty, mainly because foreigners can't or won't buy property in a debt-laden, economic disaster zone.


Isn't it odd how boom and bust housing markets can share a common characteristic – empty homes? And isn't it interesting how we label all these empty homes, estates, areas, districts and towns with the word “ghost”? Irrespective of how and where these empty homes appear, a common desire among those concerned with homelessness, community-building and economics is to see them filled with people.


A rebalancing of the global economy, wealth and perspectives would seem to be the way to fill empty homes. There would be fewer “virgin” flats in China if owners let them out, because they needed income. There would be fewer absentee home-owners in London if they were taxed more heavily. There would be more occupied homes in Ireland and USA if people could afford to buy or rent them. There would be more occupied holiday homes in Spain if austerity wasn't eating into European budgets.


Of course, the march of time means a rebalancing of global trends would not be enough in some cases – the ghost towns of nineteenth century America became empty, because they became obsolete. Time will tell how many early twenty-first century ghost areas are obsolete. Knightsbridge is likely to survive for a long while yet, because it is at the heart of a global financial capital. The future looks less promising for some of those empty, Spanish housing estates however.

Friday, 10 February 2012

LONDON'S UNPOPULAR LANDLORDS

The city's private rented sector is a political battleground

News that some London landlords want to evict tenants, so they can re-let to Olympics visitors at many-times-the-usual rent, will surely feature in next May's London mayoral election. Several mayoral candidates are gunning for landlords.

Liberal Democrat candidate, Brian Paddick, says property investors have priced-out first-time-buyers from the sales market, and Labour's, Ken Livingstone, currently leading in the polls, has challenging policies for landlords - he wants rent controls introduced - no Londoner should pay more than one-third of their salary in rent he says. At the moment, it is 50 per cent in two-thirds of London boroughs. Even sitting Conservative mayor, Boris Johnson, wants reform – he supports an accreditation system for landlords that will distinguish the good from the bad.

The politicisation of London's private lettings market has been stoked by the London Assembly, the body that monitors the mayor and champions causes of concern to Londoners. Its report Bleak Houses states one-in-three landlords are "rogues" and that one-third of private rented housing is below standards considered acceptable in the social housing sector.

Conditions suffered by some private tenants are Dickensian – noise, overcrowding, insanitary conditions and landlord harassment. Piled on top of that are high rents - they remain close to the record high achieved in 2011, and yet incomes are being squeezed, jobs lost and taxes raised. Meanwhile, many landlords benefit from tax allowances and low mortgage rates. Such discrepancies fuel tenants' resentment and their desire for revenge or, at least, reform.

Some landlords play down the politics. Yes, a Parliamentary vote may be needed for Livingstone to introduce rent controls and he is unlikely to get that, but that is not the point. Landlords will not be let off the hook in May - one-quarter of Londoners are private tenants – that is a lot of voters, so politicians will want them on their side.

To help save landlords from being pilloried by Londoners, the National Landlords Association ought to take the initiative by calling for all landlords to be licensed (much stronger than accreditation), so only responsible investors are allowed to let-out property. Removing rogues from the scene has two advantages for competent landlords – less competition and an improved public image. A landlords licensing system is being piloted in Newham. The NLA ought to do more to help it succeed.

Tuesday, 31 January 2012

BUBBLE IN UK FARM PRICES?

Savills says British farmers dominated demand for British farmland in 2011. Conversely, a relatively high proportion of sellers were investors, including funds and corporations. Danes were net sellers taking profits to re-invest in Danish farmland.

Farmers think for the long term, seriously long term - we are talking generations and in some cases centuries. Few investors think like that. They are more concerned with market cycles which last only for a few years at a time. British farmland prices hit record highs in summer of 2011, before edging down slightly at the end of the year. Could it be that these investor sellers expect prices to slide further?

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, Knight Frank and other respected organisations expect land prices to rise in the medium term, because food prices will continue to rise. But, recession is coming to many countries, from Taiwan to Greece and most probably Britain - this could have a deflating affect on food prices, and therefore, land prices, at least in the short term.

http://globalpropertynews.blogspot.com

All The World's a Home