Where will house prices rise?
You read it here first. Britain is about to have a property boom.
British homeowners will owe their good fortune to the “ripple affect”,
a phenomenon that has characterised every modern British housing
boom.
The ripple affect works like this, property prices rise in London, then spread
out across the rest of the country, region by region, moving north
and west, until finally everyone agrees “there's nowt like bricks
and mortar as a good investment”. We are at an early point in the
process with price rises rippling out of the British capital into
parts of south-east England. One or two markets further afield are
also looking busy.
London leads the way
So,
here's a snapshot of where we are at now. Property prices in the most
desirable parts of London, like Kensington and Chelsea, are 10 per
cent above what they were in early 2008, at the height of the
previous housing market cycle prior to its collapse later that year,
figures from website zoopla show. Property prices for most of the
rest of London are close to parity with 2008 levels.
Across Britain
as a whole however, prices remain 8 per cent below peak levels even when
the London price surge is added, which goes to show how depressed
most of the rest of the country's housing market remains. In northern
English cities like Bradford, home prices are 15 per cent below where
they were five years ago.
But,
in south east England, housing markets in prosperous towns and cities
have been recording small property price rises for one or two years.
Slightly further afield, in some West Country and East Anglia
locations, property transactions and prices are increasing, positive
evidence that the ripple affect is strengthening. It has been felt
most strongly in the West Country city of Bath where prices have
jumped 7 per cent over the past 12 months.
Ironically,
the cause of the ripple affect are those high property values in the
capital. When Londoners find they can no longer afford to buy or rent
a home in their city, they look further afield, and they are doing so
in ever greater numbers. Estate agency, Knight Frank, says most
demand for homes in cities like Bath, Oxford and Guildford comes from
priced-out Londoners.
Overseas buyers impact
Overseas
buyers, the biggest group of purchasers of multi-million pound homes
in central London, have been making their presence felt in the
capital's hinterland over the past year, especially in the exclusive,
private housing estates of Surrey and Berkshire where they can get
more for their money than in Mayfair or Knightsbridge.
Individual
British homeowners are knocking down their own homes to build
“palaces” for Russians, Kazaks and Arabs. At Weybridge, Surrey, a
former Rolls Royce executive has replaced his 100-year old home with
Newnham, a house two-and-a-half times the size, complete with
swimming pool, massage room and the large entertaining spaces sought
by Russian oligarchs. He wants GBP14 million for it.
Better economy, better colleges, better transport help
Some
businesses are escaping London's high office costs for outlying
locations and this gives added momentum to the ripple affect, because
employers and staff relocate with them. Brighton has 1,000 digital
and technology businesses operating there, some of them former London
operations, and this is contributing to its population and property
values growing faster than the national average.
Improving
transport links is giving a boost to some housing markets. Property
prices have been rising in Bristol and Cardiff since plans were
announced last autumn to electrify rail links between these two
cities and London. The improvements will reduce train journey times
between Bristol and the British capital by 20 minutes. Knight Frank
estimates electrification will add up to 10 per cent to the value of
homes in parts of Bristol.
The
expansion of world class education facilities, including
universities, independent schools, language colleges, teaching
hospitals and further education colleges in cities like Oxford and
Cambridge, and their ever closer links to private enterprise, is
generating increased demand for homes from burgeoning numbers of
students, teachers, lecturers, businessmen and scientists.
The
development of research facilities at Cambridge University has made
“Silicon Fen”, the science parks outside Cambridge, an
international hub for software developers, biotechnologists and
electronics specialists.
Oxford
University's biggest construction project for more than a century,
the 10-acre Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, will add 7 per cent to the
value of homes surrounding it Knight Frank forecasts. Nearly
completed, it consists of libraries, teaching premises, student
accommodation and medical facilities.
A
farming revival in some locations is having a positive impact on
housing markets in smaller market towns, including Marlborough in
Wiltshire. Businessmen have bought up tracts of countryside
surrounding the town, increased farm productivity and launched new
enterprises, like brewing. These activities combined with an
expansion of the town's world-famous independent school, Marlborough
College, have created jobs, drawn visitors and increased trade
between businesses, underpinning demand for homes there.
Southern construction boom
Construction
levels may be depressed nationally, but in London and much of
southern England they are rising as house-builders compete to
accommodate incomers. Bath is experiencing its greatest level of
building activity since post-war reconstruction in the late 1940s.
New schemes include Somerset Place, where Regency houses lining one
of the city's five famous crescent-shaped roads are being restored by
developer, SIAHAF. Used by a university since World War Two, the
yellow Bath-stone buildings are being turned back into homes - nine
houses and 20 apartments, with prices starting at GBP1.65 million.
Six new houses are being constructed behind the crescent.
To
the north, Edinburgh homes are rising in value, even though most of
the rest of Scotland remains mired in slump. As Britain's second
largest financial centre, Edinburgh's economic fortunes can more
closely mirror that of London than of other Scottish cities, and this
is reflected in its housing market trends.
Locations
to watch in the English north and Midlands include Wilmslow in
Cheshire, famous for all its millionaire footballer residents, and
Stratford-upon-Avon, Shakespeare's birthplace in Warwickshire, which
is attracting overseas buyers. Upmarket estate agency, Sotheby's
International Realty, has expanded its operations in both locations
to cater for increased buyer demand.
A
housing market needs a strong economy to underpin it. With a double
dip recession avoided, GDP growth forecast to accelerate over the
next two years, and employment levels rising, Britons are starting to
think it is safe to buy a home again. This ought to ensure price
rises ripple out further from London.
Help to buy
The
ripple affect will be given extra momentum by the Government's
Help-to-Buy scheme announced in March which targets homes valued
under GBP600,000. It will provide buyers with equity and loan
guarantees equal to up to 40 per cent of the value of a property,
thereby alleviating the difficulty many have with raising the large
deposits demanded by banks. Mortgage lenders have been getting busier
since the scheme was announced. Nationwide Building Society says
mortgage demand from first time buyers has increased 70 per cent
year-on-year.
The
extent to which this embryonic housing boom is sustainable will
depend on the balance between sound economic and demographic
fundamentals on the one hand and government intervention on the
other. Where Help-to-Buy is a dominant driving force, price rises
will not be sustainable in the longer term, because they rely on
buyers taking on large debts, but where improved transport links,
economic recovery and growing population underpin demand, they ought
to be. The towns and cities mentioned in this article fall into the
latter category.
(This is a version of my article which appeared in Identity magazine, UAE)